基于组合预测模型对我国体育用品制造业产品销售收入的预测  

Integrated prediction model based on sports manufacturing product sales income in China

作　　者：诸文兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学体育学院,重庆400047

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2008年第6期32-38,共7页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

摘　　要：以1999年1月至2006年12月我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入的历史数据为研究对象,运用指数平滑预测模型、向量自回归预测模型、单积(单整)自回归移动平均预测模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入分别建立4个单项预测模型,同时根据组合预测相关理论构建我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入的组合预测模型,并采用该组合预测模型对2007年1月至2010年12月我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入进行了预测和展望。结果证明:各单项预测模型的预测值与实际值的拟合效果较好;各单项预测模型的预测精度较高,而组合之后模型预测精度进一步提高,说明组合预测模型比单项预测模型更加可靠;预测结果显示未来几年内我国体育用品制造业产品月销售收入将保持持续增长态势。Taking the monthly sales income of China＇s sports manufacturing product from January 1999 to December 2006 for the study and with four prediction models were established based on the exponential smoothing prediction model,vector autoregressive prediction model,single plot（single whole） reunification moving average and prediction Gray GM （1,1）. Then the integrated prediction model based on sports manufacturing product sale income in China was set up, which was adopted to predict the monthly sales income of the sports manufacturing products from January 2007 to December 2010. The results showed that figures of single event based on the prediction model could match the actual figures. The integrated prediction model proved to be better. The prediction indicated a stable rise in the sales income in the following years.

关 键 词：体育经济学 组合预测模型 中国体育用品制造业 产品销售收入 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]