燕山水库入库径流演变规律及驱动力分析  

Evolution rule and driving influence analysis of Yanshan Reservoir

作　　者：马跃先[1] 李世英[1] 杨天平[1] 王艳华[1] 李卫宾[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第6期205-211,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(0124190108)

摘　　要：【目的】揭示入库径流的演变规律，探讨人类活动对径流演变的影响。【方法】以燕山水库入库径流为研究对象，运用随机水文学和时间序列理论，对燕山水库1954-2001年近50年来的径流演变规律及其驱动力因素进行了全面分析。【结果】燕山水库入库径流的年径流量、汛期径流量均存在不太显著的减少趋势；径流演变呈现出7，11和19年丰枯交替的现象和阶段性特征；3个阶段人类驱动力对径流减少的贡献率依次为0％，3．2％和7．5％。【结论】入库径流和汛期径流减少的趋势受降水的影响逐渐减弱，而人类活动对径流演变的影响在逐步增强；工业、城镇居民大量用水和农业灌溉用水是影响径流减少的最主要驱动力。[Objective] The paper revealed the inflow evolution rule and human driving force on the evolution of the runoff. [Method] According to the dates of Yanshan reservoir runoff during the period of 1954-2001 ,the paper used stochastic hydrology and time series theory. [Result] Annual runoff and flood season runoff of Yanshan reservoir had the trend of inconspicuous decrease,inflow evolution showed 7,11 and 19-year period change of abundant dry turn taking, inflow evolution had the characteristic of phase, contribution rates of human driving force on inflow decrease in three steps was 0%,3.2% and 7.5% respectively. [Conclusion] The decrease of reservoir inflow and flood season runoff was lower because of precipitation,while the influence of human activity of inflow evolution was stronger,and the main factors in human driving force were industry, domestic water consumption and agricultural irrigation water consumption.

关 键 词：入库径流 演变规律 降水量 人类驱动力 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] P333.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]