山区双车道公路路侧危险度对安全影响的分析研究  

Analysis Between Roadside Hazard Degree and Safety for Two-lane Highway in Mountainous Area

作　　者：张铁军[1] 唐琤琤[2] 宋楠[2] 肖贵平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]交通部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2008年第2期43-50,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技资助基金:<公路交通安全手册>研究(200431822333-01)

摘　　要：为探明路侧危险度对安全的具体影响规律,本文做了深入的调研和分析。分析结果表明:路侧危险度和路侧事故率是偏弱的负相关关系,而与全部事故率、碰撞事故率是偏弱的正相关关系;在综合考虑接入口密度、道路线形、交通组成、路侧危险度等因素构建的综合事故预测模型中,路侧危险度只在碰撞事故预测模型中为正向影响系数,在其他模型中为非显著影响。进一步分析发现,路侧危险度对全部事故率的影响是按二次抛物线先降低后持续上升,对碰撞事故率影响是按二次抛物线持续上升,对路侧事故率影响是按二次抛物线持续下降。基于分析结果,确定了路侧危险度事故减少因子,并对路侧危险度对碰撞事故的影响做了细致分析。Much work and analyses were done in order to find the essence between roadside hazard degree and highway safety. It is concluded that the relation between roadside hazard degree and the accident rate at roadside is weak negative, but it is weak positive for the total accident rate, and the collision accident rate at the same scene. In the comprehensive accident prediction model considering the parameters of driveway density, highway alignment, traffic composition, roadside hazard, etc., roadside hazard factor is only a positive influence factor in the collision prediction model, and is not obvious in the other models. With more study, we find that roadside accidents will decrease with the increasing of roadside hazard degree by binary parabola. All the accidents will decrease in the beginning and then increase in succession with the increase of roadside hazard degree by binary parabola. Collision accident rate will increase with the increase of roadside hazard degree by binary parabola too. Based on the analysis above, the accident reduction factor for roadside hazard degree was determined in the paper.

关 键 词：路侧危险度 路侧事故 碰撞事故 事故预测模型 事故减少因子 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]