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作 者:杨艳蓉[1] 王振会[1] 杨洪平[2] 张沛源[2] 李柏[3]
机构地区:[1]江苏省气象灾害重点实验室 [2]中国气象科学研究院 [3]中国气象局大气探测技术中心
出 处:《气象》2008年第6期26-34,共9页Meteorological Monthly
基 金:江苏省气象灾害重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)项目(KLME050101);国家自然科学基金面上项目(40375006)资助
摘 要:利用CAPS(Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storm)研发的ARPS(The Advanced Regional Prediction System)模式及数据处理系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analy-sis System)和3DVar(3-D Variation)系统分别同化多普勒雷达反射率与径向风资料,分析二者在改进模式初始场和预报效果中的作用。通过模拟2003年7月安徽省一次强降水过程,得到如下结论:径向风资料调整初始风场,在积分进行后,对水汽场也有所调整;反射率资料调整初始水汽场,积分开始后,对风场也有调整,其中后者较显著。从预报的3小时降水来看,两个同化试验得到的落区位置与实况都有出入,反射率同化试验得到的预报面积比实况偏大,但二者都比非同化试验效果好。Herein Doppler radar reflectivity and radial velocity data assimilation experiments are carried by means of ARPS ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System) and 3Dvar (3-D Variation System) respectively. Roles played by ADAS and 3Dvar in improving initial fields and forecast results are analyzed. Through investigating one rainstorm process occurred in Anhui Province, July 2003, it indicates that radial velocity data affects initial wind field, along with integral beginning, water vapor field is adjusted too. Reflectivity data impacts initial water vapor field, and after inte-gration, the wind field is improved. The effect of reflectivity is more evident than that of radial velocity. Moreover, for the 3h rainfall simulation, reflectivity and radial velocity assimilation experiments are both different with observations in situ, the former one is greater than the observation. While the both results of assimilation experiments are better than those of the non-assimilation ones.
分 类 号:P44[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] V271.44[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]
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