基于流域水文模拟的径流变化原因研究  

Study on Causes of Runoff Variation Based on Hydrological Simulation——Taking Sanchuanhe River Casin as a Case Study

作　　者：王国庆[1] 贺瑞敏[1] 李亚曼 荆新爱[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]禹州市水利局,河南禹州461672 [3]黄河水利委员会,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2008年第3期11-13,79,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：“十一五”科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2006BAB06B00-08);江苏省博士后基金资助项目(0701026C)

摘　　要：利用黄河中游三川河流域天然时期的降水径流资料,对SIMHYD降水径流模型进行了率定,并延展了人类活动影响期间的天然径流过程。采用水文模拟途径分析了三川河流域径流量的变化原因。结果表明,SIMHYD模型对三川河流域月径流过程具有良好的模拟效果,人类活动和气候变化对径流的绝对影响量呈增加趋势,人类活动是三川河流域径流量减少的主要原因。SIMHYD rainfall runoff model was firstly calibrated with natural hydro-meteorological data in Sanchuanhe River Basin. And then, the model was used to extrapolate natural runoff period affected by human activities. Finally, the causes of runoff variation in Sanchuanhe River Basin were analyzed with hydrological simulation method. And results show that SIMHYD rainfall runoff model has good simulation result for monthly discharge in Houdacheng hydrometric station. Absolute runoff reductions affected by human activities and climate change have shown increasing trends. On av- erage, 70.1 % and 29.9 % of total runoff reduction were caused by soil and water conservation measures and change in meteorological factors. Human activities are main causes of runoff reduction in Sanchuanhe River Basin.

关 键 词：水文模拟 气候变化 水土保持 径流变化 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]