库岸边坡变形的统计-混沌混合预测模型  

Statistic-chaos Hybrid Forecasting Model of Reservoir Embankment Slope under Multiple Factors Action

作　　者：宋敬衖[1] 吴海真[1] 顾冲时[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2008年第3期129-132,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部岩土力学与工程重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(G07-03);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50539010);国家自然科学基金雅龙江水电开发联合研究基金重点资助项目(50539110);国家科技支撑计划课题资助项目(2006BCA14B03)

摘　　要：基于降雨作用下边坡非饱和土的滑移理论及岩土体蠕变效应的量化研究,构建了库岸边坡改进的多因素监控模型。在此基础上将边坡位移表示为由确定性分量、混沌分量和随机分量叠加而成,并以多因素监控模型对确定性成分建模,对残差序列进行相空间重构,建立了统计—混沌混合预测模型。实际应用表明,与传统的统计模型相比,该模型可明显提高回归和预测精度,具有一定的实用价值和推广价值。In this paper reservoir embankment slope＇s rainfall infiltration sliding displacement is studied based on suction deformation, relationship between water content and strain of unsaturated soil, timing effect influence factor is brought forward based on typical creep formation of elastic-viscoelastic-viscoplastic model, which offers theoretical bases for factors＇ choice of statistic model, and enhanced multiple factors deformation monitoring model of reservoir embankment slope is established. At the same time, aiming at some shortcomings for statistic regression model, namely fitting precision is high hut extension effect is of a sort, the statistic-chaos hyhridforecasting model is established for forecasting reservoir embankments deformation tendency based on enhanced multiple factors deformation monitoring model and chaotic theory. The engineering case study indicates that the new model could enhance regression precision relative to traditional statistic model and has big practical and popularizing value for forecasting slope deformation.

关 键 词：库岸边坡 变形 改进的多因素监控模型 统计-混沌混合预测模型 

分 类 号：TV697.23[水利工程—水利水电工程]