无失效数据下液体火箭发动机可靠性多层Bayes估计  

The Hierarchical Bayes Reliability Estimation for Liquid Rocket Engine with Zero-failure Data

作　　者：姜祥周[1] 师义民[1] 沈政[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学,西安710072

出　　处：《航天控制》2008年第3期88-91,共4页Aerospace Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70471057)

摘　　要：针对液体火箭发动机热试车过程中可能出现的无失效情况,在对寿命分布进行分析的基础上,确定了失效概率的多层先验分布,并给出了其Bayes估计。然后用最小二乘法给出寿命分布的参数估计,进而得到可靠度估计。最后通过随机模拟,讨论了文中c值的选取问题,证明了方法的可行性。In the progress of the trial run of liquid rocket engine, the situation of zero-failure data may happen. For zero-failure data, the hierarchical prior distributions and Bayes estimates of various failure probabilities are presented based on the analysis of the life distribution. Then the LS method is used to estimate the parameters of the life distribution and reliability of life distribution is given. Finally, the choice of c values is discussed in the paper by an actual example and simulation, and the results show the method given in the paper is feasible.

关 键 词：液体火箭发动机 多层BAYES估计 可靠性 无失效 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：V434.3[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]