应用时间序列分析法预测黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠种群数量  

FORECASTING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF CRICETULUS BARABANSIS AND MERIONES UNGUICULATUS BY TIME SERIES METHOD

作　　者：武文华[1] 付和平[1] 武晓东[1] 董维惠[2] 徐胜利 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学生态环境学院,呼和浩特010019 [2]中国农业科学院草原研究所,呼和浩特010021 [3]内蒙古水利科学研究院,呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《内蒙古农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第4期6-11,共6页Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.30160019;30560028);教育部"春晖计划";内蒙古自然科学基金(200508010511)

摘　　要：本文依据1984年～2004年21 a在呼和浩特郊区对黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠种群数量动态的调查数据,应用时间序列分析法（三次指数平滑法和马尔可夫链模型预测法的组合法）,建立了黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠种群数量预测模型,并应用此模型分别预测了黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠2004年的种群数量的发生程度,结果显示：黑线仓鼠种群数量的预测值与实测值相符,预测准确,而长爪沙鼠种群数量的预测值和实测值的差距很大,不能应用此方法进行预测。同时预测了未来两年（2005年~2006年）黑线仓鼠种群数量,从结果看出黑线仓鼠在未来两年内的捕获率都较高,所以在未来两年内对呼和浩特郊区鼠类进行防治时应着重加强黑线仓鼠种群数量的防治,制定相应的防治措施,减少对农田的危害。According to the data that the population dynamics of Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus was investigated in Hohhot suburbs of Inner Mongolia from 1984 to 2004. By applying the time series method （ a method combined of triple exponential smoothing method and Markov model ）, setting up the forecast model for population dynamics of Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus. And also using this model to forecast the occurrence degree of Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus popula- tion in 2004. The result showed that the predicted value corresponds with measured value of Cricetulus barabansis population, but they are different ofMeriones unguiculatus population. Meanwhile, this paper predict the Cricetulus barabansis population in next two years （2005 -2006）, and the results showed that the capture rate of Cricetulus barabansis is high in the next two years. So, the prevention and control of rodent in Hohhot suburbs must pay attention to Cricetulus barabansis population, and establishing the controlling measures, reducing the harm to agricultural land.

关 键 词：黑线仓鼠 长爪沙鼠 时间序列分析法 预测 

分 类 号：S718.54[农业科学—林学]