应用相似离度法预测红火蚁在中国适生区域及其入侵概率  

Application of Analogy Deviation to Predict Potential Distribution of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera:Formicidae) and Its Invasion Probability in China

作　　者：沈文君[1] 王雅男[1] 万方浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所/植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室,北京100094

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2008年第6期1673-1683,共11页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家"973"计划资助项目(2002CB111400;科技部十一五支撑计划(2006BAD08A15);科技基础性工作专项资助(2006FY111000)

摘　　要：【目的】依据气候相似理论,采用相似离度法预测红火蚁在中国的适生区域及其入侵概率。【方法】收集红火蚁在世界范围的分布数据和国内外气候站点的气候数据,建立红火蚁原产地和严重发生地气候站点集合,采用相似离度法找到与气候站点集合最相似的地区。在气候因素影响下,相似程度相对百分比认为是红火蚁入侵中国政区和气候区的概率值,并且建立了预警级别。【结果】预测结果表明,香港、澳门、广东、广西的入侵概率均大于80%,处于红色警报区;安徽、江苏、上海、江西、浙江、福建、台湾、贵州、云南、海南的入侵概率在50%～80%,处于橙色警报区,其它地区均处于黄色警戒区和绿色小风险区。【结论】红、橙警报区需要采取适当的防控措施,川渝地区和云南东南部的气候与原产地气候较为相似,尽管目前尚未发现有红火蚁入侵,但由于红火蚁对气候具有很强的适应性,因此也应该采取相应的预防措施。此外,相似离度法尽管多用于气象研究领域,但在预测外来物种分布范围时也起到了良好的辅助效果。【Objective】The aim of the study was to apply analogy deviation to predict potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta Buren and its invasion probability in China.【Method】Distribution data of S. invicta and meteorologic data of weather station in the world were collected,and climatic location sets of native range and seriously occurring range of S. invicta were established . According to the climatic analogy theory,analogy deviation were applied to find the area that climate matching for location sets. The relative percentage of value in analogy deviation is considered as the value of invasion probability,based upon which alarm levels were suggested. 【Result】 The result showed that Hongkong,Macao,Guangdong and Guangxi belong to red level alarm range with invasion probability over 80%. Anhui,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Fujian,Taiwan,Guizhou,Yunan and Hainan are parts of orange level alarm range varying invasion probability of 50%-80%. The other areas in China belong to lower risk range. 【Conclusion】The place in red level alarm range must adopt effective measures to control this pest. Close monitoring is essential in Sichuan,Chongqing and southeast Yunnan which haven’t been invaded by S. invicta,but have a great climatic similarity with native range,and thus probably to be invaded by this ant due to its highly climatic adaptability. In addition,this study demonstrates that analogy deviation can play an important role in forecasting potential areas of alien species.

关 键 词：外来入侵物种 红火蚁 相似离度 气候相似理论 适生区域 入侵概率 预警级别 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]