滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究  

RESEARCH ON SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION LAWS AND EARLY WARNING-PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES

作　　者：许强[1] 汤明高[1] 徐开祥[2] 黄学斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059 [2]三峡库区地质灾害防治工作指挥部,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2008年第6期1104-1112,共9页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会、二滩水电开发有限责任公司雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金项目(50579099)

摘　　要：滑坡预警预报是地质工程界研究的热点,也是目前还没有得到很好解决的一个难点。结合近年来我国数十起重大滑坡灾害监测预警和应急抢险的实践经验和教训,总结并提出斜坡变形时间演化的三阶段规律和斜坡裂缝空间演化的分期配套特性,并对外界因素对斜坡变形演化的影响进行深入细致的分析。通过研究认为:时间上,斜坡变形一般要经历初始变形、等速变形、加速变形3个阶段,正确判断斜坡的变形演化阶段是滑坡准确预警的基础;空间上,滑坡的地表裂缝会随着变形的不断增加逐渐形成完整配套的裂缝体系。将时间–空间演化规律有机结合、综合分析,是进行滑坡准确预警预报的重要保证;进行滑坡变形演化与外界影响因素的相关性和宏观变形破坏迹象分析,是处理阶跃型变形曲线的有效手段。Landslide prediction is one of the hot issues in the field of engineering geology, but the relevant theories have not been well built up so far. Combining the experience and lessons from the practices of the several cases of slope prediction and monitoring in recent years, the three-phase law of landslide deformation with time and assorted characters of cracks spatial evolution in different deformation periods, and the effects of the external factors on the evolution of slope deformation are analyzed. The following results are drawn. （1） The slope deformation experiences three stages in time, i.e. initial deformation stage, constant deformation stage and accelerative deformation stage; and the correct prediction of slope deformation stage is the basis of exact landslide prediction. （2） The cracks on the ground surface will form a complete crack system gradually with the increase of the slope deformation in space. The synthetic analysis of temporal-spatial deformation evolution is the key of accurate slope prediction. It can also be concluded that the analysis of correlation among landslide deformation evolution, external influential factors and macroscopically deformation failure evidence, is an effective method to deal with step-type deformation curve of landslide.

关 键 词：边坡工程 预警预报 变形-时间曲线 裂缝分期配套 时空综合分析 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]