北方干旱化对水土资源与粮食安全的影响及适应--以陕北地区为例  

The Response of Water,Land and Food Security towards the Aridification and the Adaptive Measures:Case Study of Northern Shaanxi Province

作　　者：文琦[1] 刘彦随[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2008年第7期7-11,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2006CB400505);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(04JZD00010)资助

摘　　要：运用气候变率、线性回归、因子相关分析等方法,对1975-2005年陕北农牧交错区降水、温度变化进行分析,得出气候暖干化趋势显著的结论。对土地、水和粮食安全与干旱化相关系数离散程度分析表明:在气候干旱化作用和煤炭资源过量开发影响下,区域生态环境退化严重;以无定河、延河流域为例,发现流域年降水量每增加10%,其径流量增加22.22%,径流深度加深4.47%,年降水量每减少10%,径流量减少15.98%,径流深度减少3.56%的规律;粮食、牧草受暖干化影响,需水胁迫加剧,出现了产量降低,品质下降,草场承载力下降等问题;最后,针对土地、水和粮食安全对干旱化的响应,提出了适应性对策。Aridification is more and more seriously influencing the water, land and food security in northern China. Based on the methods of climatic variability, linear regression, factor analysis, the change trends of precipitation, temperature in northern Shaanxi Province from 1975 to 2005 were analyzed. The results suggested that climate was warmer and drier, especially in the last 10 years, the temperature increased rapidly at the speed of 0. 87℃/10a in fluctuating, mainly because of the remarkable increase of temperature in winter and spring. Meanwhile, the precipitation reduced 71.9ram in recent 31 years. On the contrary, along with the increase of temperature, the evaporation decreased at 25.57mm/10a. The responses of land, water and food security to the aridification showed that the land degradation would expand if oil and coal resources continue to be over exploited in the future. There was high pertinence between precipitation and runoff. There would be a consequence of 22. 22% increase of surface runoff if precipitation increases 10% one year. If precipitation reduces 10%, there would be a 15.98% decrease of surface runoff. The temperature increased by 1.31℃ and the precipitation decreased by 34.73mm in northern Shaanxi during 1986 -2000, degraded farmland and woodland added respectively 33.38hm2 and 15.50 hm^2. At last, some suggestions were made for improving the environmental condi- tions and reducing the impacts of aridification.

关 键 词：干旱化 水土资源 粮食安全 农村发展 陕北地区 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]