论运输需求预测的有效性  

Study on the Validity of Transportation Demand Forecast

作　　者：唐建桥[1] 李新民 王慈光[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输学院,四川成都610051 [2]广梅汕铁路有限公司,广东广州510655

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2008年第6期82-85,共4页Railway Transport and Economy

摘　　要：利用系统科学的思想、原理和方法,分析我国运输需求预测有效性不高的现状、问题及其产生的原因。为提高需求预测的有效性,提出科学界定运输经济理论中的几个基本概念,合理选择影响运输需求的主要因素,并将总量预测与结构预测、数理预测与机理预测、趋势外推预测与大背景分析预测结合起来进行。The paper analyzes the present situation, problems and causes of the lower validity on transportation demand forecast in china with the ideas, principles and methods of system sciences. In order to improve the validity of transportation demand forecast, the paper suggests that several basic concepts of transport theory should be defined scientifically, main factors affecting the transportation demand should be chosen rationally, and puts forwards suggestions of combining the total amount forecast with structure forecast, the mathematic forecast with mechanism forecast and the tendency extrapolated forecast with macro background analytical forecast.

关 键 词：运输需求 预测 有效性 系统科学 运输供给 

分 类 号：F512.3[经济管理—产业经济]