基于模糊综合评价的R＆D项目财务风险计量  

Research on Financial Risk Judgment of R&D Project Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：梁莱歆[1] 马如飞[1] 王文芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2008年第5期113-117,共5页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.70672105)

摘　　要：从R&D活动的特点来看,以财务指标为主的传统风险评价方法并不适用于R&D项目的风险评价。我们将研发过程分为三个阶段,分别确定各阶段的风险因子,据此设置了研发财务风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,引入模糊综合评价方法,构建了研发过程财务风险二级模糊综合评价模型,并以一家生物制药企业为例,对该公司菌苗项目中试阶段的财务风险状态进行了评价。The financial risk of R＆D project can not be ignored, and the traditional evaluation method can not judge the financial risk of R＆D project because of the characteristic of R＆D project. This paper divides the R＆D progress into three phrases and finds out the risk factors of every phases, and sets a factors system of financial risk of R＆D base on risk factors, Then the authors introduce fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method into financial risk evaluation and present a two stages evaluation model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. At last, as an example, the authors evaluate the financial risk of a vaccine trial project of a biopharmaceutical company＇s use the model.

关 键 词：R&D 财务风险 风险因子 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]