我国隐性资本流入的影响因素实证研究  

An Empirical Study on Determinants of Hidden Capital Flowing Into China

作　　者：黄济生[1] 罗海波[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学金融与统计学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2008年第6期32-37,共6页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：在资本账户尚未开放的情形下,贸易伪报、FDI等构成国际金融资本流入中国的重要渠道。隐性资本的持续大规模流入,对我国央行宏观调控及经济正常发展具有潜在的负面影响。因此,理解隐性资本流入的决定因素具有现实意义。实证结果表明,宏观经济基本变量等内部因素是吸引隐性资本流入的主要"拉动"力,而日美经济增长速度则是"推动"隐性资本流入的重要变量。为此,我国应从经济发展战略的高度强化经济增长质量,完善金融市场体系,提升抵御外部冲击的能力,同时逐步有序开放资本账户,降低隐性资本流动规模。Under the regulation of capital account,international financial capital flows into China through trade mis-invoicing and disguised FDI.The large inflow of hidden capital imposes potential adverse impact to macro-control and economic development.Therefore,it is essential to understand the determinants of hidden inflows.The empirical study shows that internal factors including GDP growth,trade value/GDP are the dominant pull forces,while the economic growth of U.S and Japan are playing an important role in push forces.From the perspective of economic development strategy,we should take measures to enhance economic growth quality and perfect financial system to counteract the external shock,meanwhile open the capital account gradually to minimize the scale of hidden capital inflows.

关 键 词：隐性资本 推动-拉动因素 外部性 资本账户开放 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]