MGM(1，N)模型用于瓦斯涌出量预测  

Forecasting of gas emissions based on MGM (1,N) model

作　　者：肖鹏[1] 李树刚[1] 张进[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学能源学院

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2008年第2期301-304,309,共5页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(505740720);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(02JK082)

摘　　要：矿井瓦斯涌出量预测是新建矿井和改扩建矿井通风设计、安全管理、制定合理的瓦斯防治措施必不可少的重要环节。加强瓦斯涌出量预测方法研究,正确预测瓦斯涌出量,对改善我国煤矿安全生产状况具有积极的意义。在瓦斯涌出量预测中,瓦斯涌出量受多因素综合影响,且各个因素间相互影响、相互关联。文中提出一种新的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法——MGM(1,N)模型预测法。该方法综合考虑了瓦斯涌出量的各个影响因素,预测精度较高。其结果对煤矿安全生产具有指导意义。Forecasting the gas emissions is most important part for the ventilation planning and safety management of newly-built coal mine or expanded coal mine and for drafting reasonable gas countermeasures. Increasing research on forecast method of gas emissions, and precisely predicting gas emissions are of great importance for improving the situation of safety and production of coalmine in China. The gas emissions are affected by other factors that influence each other when forecast it. A new forecast method MGM（ 1,N） is put forward model. The parameters of the forecast model reflect the variable and influence each other. MGM（ 1,N） can consider synthetically each effect factor and show the exactitude and efficiency of the method through setting up the multivariate forecast model.

关 键 词：MGM(1  N)模型 瓦斯涌出量 预测方法 

分 类 号：TD712.53[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]