基于GM(1,1)模型的联合收割机保有量预测  

Prediction of the Combine Quantity Based on Grey Model GM(1,1)

作　　者：朱慧琴[1] 魏青[1] 王书茂[1] 毛志怀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学工学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农机化研究》2008年第8期17-19,共3页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD28B0304)

摘　　要：应用灰色系统理论,建立我国联合收割机保有量预测模型GM(1,1)。运用残差检验与后验差检验两种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型的拟合精度达到98.38%。经预测与校验,预测值与实际值大体吻合,两者的平均相对误差仅为8.23%,证明了预测的可信性。用所建立的模型对今后几年的联合收割机保有量进行动态预测,为调控收割机总量和规范跨区作业市场提供理论依据,为政府管理部门制定有关政策措施和相关企业进行产销决策提供了参考。Based on the grey system theory , the grey model GM （ 1,1 ） has established to forecast the quantity of Combines in china. With the forecast results of the model, remnant verification and posterior variance are also tested. The results show that the model accuracy of fitting is 98.38% and the average relative error of established model is 8.23% ,which is used to verify the results are credible. Then, the development trend of combines in China are further predicted, it gives the theory basis to control the quantity of the combines and establish regulation policies of trans - regional harvesting market order, it also offers reference for the govemment＇s administrative departments to make relevant policies and measures, and it produces reference for the relevant enterprises to make producing and selling decisions.

关 键 词：联合收割机保有量 灰色系统 预测分析 模型 

分 类 号：S225.3[农业科学—农业机械化工程]