天津市区及近郊区地面沉降灾害风险评估与区划  

Assessment and Zonation of Land Subsidence Disaster Risk in Urban and Suburb of Tianjin

作　　者：胡蓓蓓[1] 姜衍祥[2] 周俊[2] 王军[1] 许世远[1] 陈振楼[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室 [2]天津市控制地面沉降工作办公室,天津300061

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第4期28-34,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40730526,40571006,70703010);天津师范大学校青年基金(52LJ41)

摘　　要：风险评估与区划是灾害管理的重要内容。本文对1985-2005年累计地面沉降量、加权算术平均速率和地下水开采强度三个因子进行分析和叠加评价,完成了天津市区及近郊区地面沉降灾害危险性分区图;以人口密度、单位面积GDP和建设用地比重作为指标进行了易损性分析;从每平方公里水准测量公里数、地下水压采量占开采量的百分比和城市化水平这三个方面考虑防灾减灾能力;在此基础上,借助GIS空间分析方法,将危险性分区图、易损性分区图和防灾减灾能力分区图进行叠加分析,完成了天津市区及近郊区地面沉降灾害风险区划图,共分为低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区、高风险区五等。研究结果可为区域可持续发展和防灾减灾决策提供依据。Risk assessment and zoning are very important for risk management. Accumulative total subsidence volume, land subsidence velocity and groundwater exploitation intensity were analyzed and superimposed to create the land subsidence disaster hazard evaluation map. Population density, unit area GDP and Urbanization were used as indexes vulnerability mapping. Response ＆ recovery capability of land subsidence disaster was also assessed. Land subsidence disaster risk zonation by means of GIS automatically was overlaid on the three data layers of hazard, vulnerability and response ＆ recovery capability . Then each grid unit with a resolution of 200m × 200m was classed into five grade of the risk： high, slight high, medium, slight low and low, The research could provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development and disasters prevention policy-making of Tianjin city.

关 键 词：地面沉降 风险指数 风险评估 风险区划 

分 类 号：U456.33[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]