月度自然递减率预测方法研究及应用  

RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONG OF MONTHLY NATURAL DECLINE RATE PERDICTION

作　　者：肖武[1] 张孝天[2] 丁利[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学能源学院,北京100083 [2]中国石化胜利油田分公司地质科学研究院,山东东营257015

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第3期159-162,共4页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition)

摘　　要：自然递减率是反映油田产量变化的一个重要指标。针对以往凭经验预测的结果精确度不高的现状,推导出了指数递减、双曲递减和调和递减规律下的月度阶段自然递减率计算公式,在此基础上,基于大量的现场数据,提出了一套月度自然递减率经验公式预测方法。该方法可以简单快捷的预测月度自然递减率,合理确定年度部署分月的产量运行、工作量安排,可以作为开发生产动态趋势预警的重要参考。试验表明该方法具有较高的预测精度,能有效地指导油田开发生产管理。Natural decline rate is an important index of yield variation of oil field.In view of the predicting circumstance by experience in the past,formula of monthly natural decline rate is deduced in the regular pattern of exponential decline,double curves decline and harmonic decline.On this basis,empirical formula prediction of monthly natural decline rate is proposed on the basis of considerable research and analysis of real field data.According to this method,monthly natural decline rate can be predicted easily and promptly so as to set monthly output performance and workload arrangement of yearly deployment appropriately.It also can be an important reference to early warning for dynamic tendency of development.It can guide the management of the oil field development and production.

关 键 词：月度自然递减率 预测方法 年度部署 开发预警 

分 类 号：TE132.1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]