地震灾害时间进程法  

TIME HISTORY METHOD TO ESTIMATE SEISMIC DISASTERS

作　　者：王景来[1] 杨子汉[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局

出　　处：《地震研究》1997年第4期424-430,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：人们用各种方法，试图在震前对未来的地震灾害进行预测，尽管考虑到各种因素，如地震灾害与震级、烈度、人口密度、伤亡与房屋倒塌、场地、发震时间和地区性指数等关系，但是震后的实际地震灾害往往与震前预测的情况有很大出入。地震发生后，对灾害的发展趋势如何评估，是地震救灾面临的十分紧迫的问题，它不能等到数天后的报告才来决策救灾问题，到那时将会贻误救灾时机。阪神地震对灾情的错误评估，就是一个典型的例子。由于部署救灾力量与灾情的趋势密切相关，因此，震后对灾情的趋势估计是越早越好。它与震前的灾害预测有所不同，同时也是对震前灾情预测的完善和补充，使之更接近实际。地震灾害时程曲线，是地震发生后的灾害动态反应，研究其图象的规律，能为救灾决策提供参考和帮助。Before an earthquake happens, various kinds of methods have been used to estimate disasters from the forthcoming earthquake. although all kinds of facecting disasters, such as the relations of disasters with magnitude, intensity, population density, seismic site, occurrence time and local index, are considered, the actual disasters after an earthquake are quite different from the one estimated before the event. After an earthquake occurs, how to estimate the disaster tendency is an urgent problem facing the disaster rescue and relief. The governments at all levels need the disaster tendency information as soon as possible to make decision for rescue work, otherwise, opportunity for rescue and relief would be bungled. A typical example is the misaken estimation to the disaster situation after Kobe earthquake. Due to deploying rescue forces is closely related to the disaster tendency, therefore, the earlier of the post-earthquake disaster tendency estimation is known, the better for the rescue work. Post-earthquake disaster tendency estimation is different from that of pre-earthquake, but it makes the prediction of pre-earhtquake disasters closer of the realistic situation Earthquake disaster curves with time history after the event are the dynamic reflection of the disasters after an destructive earhquake, the patterns of which can be used to study their regulations in order to provide scientific evidences for rescue and relief decision-making.

关 键 词：地震灾害 地震 震级 灾害时间 灾害预测 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]