选择船舶营运组织方式的Logit模型及应用研究  

Fuzzy Evaluation Model and Its Application Research of Ranking Shipping Form

作　　者：何新华[1] 胡文发[1] 霍佳震[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第6期760-763,共4页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：上海市教委资助项目(06FZ036);上海市重点学科建设资助项目(T0602);上海海事大学“管理科学与工程”重点学科资助项目(XR0101)

摘　　要：选择合适的船舶营运组织方式需要考虑的因素很多,而且其评价信息具有模糊性.提出利用Logit模型对船舶营运组织方式进行选择的思路和方法,采用基于可能-满意度方法的效用函数值代替传统的用多元线性回归求解的特征函数值,并利用四级航道的各种船舶营运组织方式的实际统计数据与Logit模型计算结果相比较,确定该模型的实用性,得到了较好的结论.So many factors need to be taken into account to select the shipping form and the complicated information is fuzzy rather than transparent. In this paper, Logit model is presented to evaluate the probability of selecting the shipping form. Based on accounting and analyzing the possibility-satisfaction index of shipping form instead of the traditionally-used eigenfunction in the Logit model, the ranking of shipping form was given. At the same time, the applicable area of shipping form was analyzed and reasoned. The estimated result is compared with the real position, and the practical value of the Logit model in evaluating the shipping form is identified. This improvement has a goad eonclusion.

关 键 词：内河航运 船舶及营运组织方式 LOGIT模型 可能-满意度 

分 类 号：U169.79[交通运输工程]