夏季副高数值产品的集成预报研究  

THE STUDY ON COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT NWP PRODUCTS FOR SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN SUMMER

作　　者：晃淑懿 金荣花 李月安 

机构地区：[1]中央气象台,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》1997年第4期325-334,共10页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文使用1995年和1996年6—8月欧洲中期天气预报中心和我国T63L16的500hPa48h—144h五个时效平均预报场，以及相应的T63500hPa0h五天平均场资料，根据100—140°E、20—50°N范围内西北太平洋副热带高压的南北位置分为四类副高。对比分析EC和T63两个模式的各类副高特征参数的预报误差特点，发现当EC预报的副高强度强于或接近T63预报时，EC预报副高的数值产品精度优于T63；反之，T63对副高的预报水平较高，预报精度也往往优于EC，但在各类副高中T63的优势程度不尽相同。根据这些特点，设计了能充分应用这两个模式预报副高优势产品的集成方案，显著提高了数值产品业务使用的效果。也为开发与有效应用国内数值产品进行十分有益的探索。Using 68 predictions of 5oOhPa average field for 48-144h by ECMWF and T63L16model of NMC of China from June to August of 1995 and 1996,four categories of subtropicalhigh in 100-140°E, 20-50°N area are identified. Compared and analyzed the predictions ofthe parameters of subtropical high by ECMWF and T63 model of China, it is found thatwhen the prediction of subtropical high by ECMWF was stronger than that by T63 or near,the precision of the prediction of subtropical high by ECMWF would be higher,otherwise,when the prediction of subtuopical high by T63 model was stronger than that by ECMWF,the prediction of T63 would be better. But the dominant degrees of different category werenot the same. Based on these results,the combination prediction scheme has been designedand good results were achieved in the application of NWP products in our operational forecasts.

关 键 词：数值产品 副高 集成预报 气压预报 天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.4