中国电信投资经济效应的实证研究  

Telecommunications Investment:Infrastructure,Network Effect and Regional Disequilibrium

作　　者：罗雨泽[1] 芮明杰[2] 罗来军[3] 朱善利[4] 

机构地区：[1]国家信息产业部电信研究院 [2]复旦大学管理学院 [3]中国人民大学经济学院 [4]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2008年第6期61-72,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于模块化分工条件下的网络状产业链内知识创新研究"(批准号:70672082);复旦大学中国经济国际竞争力研究;国家哲学社会科学创新基地产业子课题;中国人民大学"985工程"中国经济研究哲学社会科学创新基地"中国经济开放模式"课题资助

摘　　要：本文研究了电信投资对我国经济增长的贡献以及贡献值变化的趋势。利用我国2000—2005年31个省市的数据,建立和估计了两者之间的系统结构方程。结果发现我国电信投资对我国经济增长的边际贡献平均为2.376%,比其他社会基础投资高6.758%,但电信投资的边际贡献呈现下降趋势。分区域考察的结果表明,电信投资及其贡献存在着明显的区域非均衡,在西部对生产率的促进作用远远高于东部和中部;我国西部应加大对电信的投资,东部需要调整投资结构,而中部则应采取措施刺激电信消费。本文在同类研究中取得了一定突破,和Roller与Waverman(2001)的研究结论相反,得出的实证结论与他们在网络效应和边际贡献方面的理论预测相反,对制定电信投资决策具有指导作用。In this paper we investigate how telecommunications infrastructure investment affects economic growth by estimating a structural model with the data set covering 31 provinces and six years from the year 2000 to 2005. We find that the average marginal effect of telecommunications investment is 2.376 percent, which is higher than social infrastructure investment by 6.758 percent, but it takes on a decreasing trend. The empirical study on different regions reveals that there is distinct regional disequilibrium that the investment contribution to productivity in the West is much higher than that in the others, which is opposite to the instinct. Therefore, it is imperative to keep increasing investment in the West, make a structural adaptation in the East and stimulate telecommunications consumption in the Middle. Our study breaks through the previous literature and draws a conclusion opposite to Roller and Waverman（2001）, which will be helpful for telecommunications investment decision-makers.

关 键 词：电信 基础投资 边际贡献 区域非均衡 

分 类 号：F626[经济管理—产业经济] F224