北京2008年奥运期间冰雹灾害风险评估模型研究  

Risk Evaluation Model on Hail Disaster During the Beijing Olympic Games

作　　者：董鹏捷[1] 吴正华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市人工影响天气办公室,北京100089

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2008年第2期104-108,共5页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目"北京奥运期间气象灾害风险评估技术研究"(CMATG2008M14)资助

摘　　要：对1971～2006年6～10月北京地区的569个降雹日的灾情进行了分析,以北京地区的地貌特征、冰雹发生的频率、人口密度和奥运场馆所在区域为评价因子,采用模糊数学方法分别计算出不同区域的孕灾环境敏感度、灾害发生的危险性和城市脆弱性三种指数,建立了北京地区奥运期间冰雹灾害风险评估模型,并在此基础上客观地划分等级并利用SURFER软件对数据资料进行图形处理,最后得到了北京地区奥运期间冰雹灾害的风险分级及其区划。Analyzing the background of the 569 days hail disaster events from June to October for the period of 1971-2006 in Beijing, geomorphic characteristics in Beijing Administrative Region, occurrence frequency of hail, population density and the region of the Olympic venues are chosen as the evaluation factors. Based on such factors, the disaster-developing environment sensitivity, the risk of disaster and the vulnerability of urban disaster-affected in every region are calculated by means of the fuzzy math and the hail disaster risk evaluation model during the Olympic Games in Beijing Administrative Region are established. Finally by using SURFER software and graphics processing, risk dividing grade and the regionalization for hail disaster during the Beijing Olympic Games are accomplished.

关 键 词：北京地区 奥运期间 冰雹灾害 风险评估模型 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护]