ARMA模型在瓦斯浓度预测中的应用  

Application of ARMA model in predicting mine gas concentration

作　　者：杨胜远[1] 李金林[1] 杨东朋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京市海淀区100081

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2008年第6期14-16,共3页China Coal

摘　　要：目前ARMA模型是时间序列分析中最常用的拟合平稳序列的模型。根据矿井具体情况,通过ARMA模型分析矿井瓦斯浓度,用SAS软件拟合模型,并作预测。结果表明,预测值和真实值接近,在实际应用中预测较精确,可为预防瓦斯事故提供帮助。ARMA model is by far the most frequently used goodness-of-fit model used in the time series analysis methods.Based on the actual conditions in coal mines,ARMA model is used to analyze the mine gas concentration.SAS software is also used for the forecasting.The results show that the forecast data are close to actual conditions.The comparatively accurate prediction data can be used to prevent mine gas related accidents.

关 键 词：瓦斯 时间序列 ARMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] X831[理学—数学]