传染病流行中存在“Z-D现象”的论证  

Demonstration on Z-D Phenomenon in the Occurrence of Infectious Diseases

作　　者：曾光[1] 丁雁鹏[1] 程颖恺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国预防医学科学院流行病学微生物学研究所流行病室,北京100050

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》1997年第5期270-274,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：采用回顾性验证和外推性验证的方法,对分属17种传染病的353份省级和全国的资料进行了系统的分析,论证了传染病流行中的"Z—D现象",即:传染病季节发病曲线波形的左右偏移程度与下一年发病率的升、降相关联,波峰右偏则下一年的发病率上升的可能性大,反之则发病率下降的可能性大。回顾性验证提示:对上年度的季节分布曲线与下年度发病率升降趋势作相关分析,91.2%(322/353)的资料相关系数为负值;外推性验证表明:当相关系数为r<-0.5时68.1%(203/295)的资料外推结果与实际相符,有力地证实了"Z—D现象"的存在及其预测价值。通过分析还发现"Z—D现象"在病毒性肝炎、百日咳、流行性脑脊髓膜炎、猩红热中的表现比其他疾病更典型。A systematic analysis, including retrospective test by means of correlation analysis and extrapolation test was carried out to demonstrate a new hypothesis named Z-D phenomenon which states that the skew of a seasonal case distribution curve of an infectious disease may appear to be the omen of its epidemic trend in the following year. A total number of 353 data sets belong to 17 notifiable infectious diseases in 29 provinces and the whole nation were chosen. Data from retrospective test showed that 91.2% (322/353) of the correlation coefficients of between the skew of the seasonal distribution curve of the previous year and the morbidity variation of its following year were negative. The extrapolation test showed that 68.1% (203/295) of the data sets accorded with the actually epidemic situation at the level of r<-0.5. The results proved the existence of Z-D phenomenon may serve as an indicator for the purpose of forecasting. Using this systematic analysis, we found that Z-D phenomenon was more expressive in viral hepatitis, pertussis, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and scarlet fever than in other diseases.

关 键 词：传染病 Z-D现象 预测 流行病学 

分 类 号：R510.1[医药卫生—内科学] R181.32[医药卫生—临床医学]