关于我国粮食产量波动缺口的研究——基于HP滤波的计量及政策分析  

A Study on the Fluctuation Gap of Grain Output in China——Econometric and Policy Analysis on the Basis of HP Filtering

作　　者：张军[1] 

机构地区：[1]仲恺农业工程学院经济与管理学院,广东广州510225

出　　处：《乡镇经济》2008年第6期87-90,共4页Rural Economy

摘　　要：1978年以来,我国粮食产量一直处于波动之中。负向波动、异常波动年份多于正向波动、正常波动年份;连续负向波动持续时间较长,连续正向波动持续时间较短,且交替出现。粮食产量的波动方向和缺口大小,内在地取决于粮食播种面积、耕地受灾面积及上一年粮食产量的波动方向和幅度。作为外在因素,政策缺陷在一定程度上助推了粮食产量的波动。要确保我国粮食产量稳定增长,必须强化政策创新,一方面切实加强耕地和粮食生产者利益保护,稳定粮食播种面积,另一方面加大防灾减灾力度,将粮食灾害降低到最小程度。China＇s grain output has been fluctuating since 1978. Years of negative and abnormal fluctuations are more than years of positive and normal fluctuations; consecutive negative fluctuations with longer duration and continuous positive fluctuations with shorter duration are come out in turn. The direction and gap of grain output fluctuation depend Intrinsically on the fluctuations＇ direction and amplitude of cultivated area, area under the floods or droughts, production in the last year. As the external factor, the policy flaw has boosted the fluctuation of grain output. To ensure sustainability of China＇s grain output growth, Policy Innovation should be strengthened. On the one hand, the protection of cultivated land and the producers＇ interests should be strengthen, so that the grain area is stabilized; on the other hand, we should increase the intensity of preventing and reducing disaster, so that grain disaster is controlled to the minimum extent.

关 键 词：粮食产量 波动特征 波动因素 政策创新 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]