多种量化评价方法在耕地需求量预测中的应用——以辉南县为例  

Application of Many Kinds of Quantification Assessment Methods in Cultivated Land Requirement Forecasting

作　　者：郄瑞卿[1] 薛林福[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地球科学学院

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第15期6148-6150,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：吉林省教育厅资助项目(吉教科文合字[2006]第58号)

摘　　要：通过对吉林省辉南县耕地现状进行分析,选取一定评价预测因子,采用时间序列、多元线性回归、灰色系统3种量化评价预测方法,并根据每种方法的重要性,选取不同的权重,对辉南县20102、0152、020年耕地资源进行预测,从而为辉南县未来耕地利用提供决策依据。Based on the current situation farmland analysis of Huinan county in Jilin province, according to the certain criteria, 3 quantification appraisal forecast techniques such as the time series, the multi-dimensional linear regression, the gray system were selected to carry on the farmland predict to Huinan county of 2010, 2015, 2020 by using different heavy in accordance with the importance of each method, which provided the policy-making basis for the utilization of the farmland in Huinan county in the future.

关 键 词：辉南县 耕地预测 时间序列 多元线性回归 灰色系统 

分 类 号：S119[农业科学—农业基础科学]