考虑参数相关性的滑坡稳定敏感性分析模式研究  

Study on Analysis Model of Landslide Stability Sensitivity Considering of Parameter Correlation

作　　者：程圣国[1] 陈高峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水力发电》2008年第6期38-40,80,共4页Water Power

基　　金：2005年湖北省教育厅重大科技项目(Z200513003);2008年湖北省教育厅项目(Q20081305)

摘　　要：滑坡稳定性敏感性分析和滑坡土体参数的相关性是地质灾害研究领域的关键和热点问题。为此,在总结分析该领域研究成果基础上,提出了一种考虑土体参数相关性的滑坡稳定敏感性分析模式,采用正交设计或均匀设计、极限平衡等稳定性计算手段与偏最小二乘回归法三种方法结合使用,成功解决参数相关性的滑坡稳定性分析模式,获得了内摩擦角、重度、坡角和粘聚力4因素对滑坡稳定性敏感性排序为内摩擦角φ>重度γ>坡角α>粘聚力с。该结果与未考虑参数相关性的敏感性分析略有差异。该模式具有较强的实用性,对地质灾害防治研究领域具有重要理论意义和应用价值。It is bottleneck problem for the geological hazard research field to study the sensitivity analysis of stability and correlation of soil parameters of landslides. This paper puts forward a new model of landslide stability sensitivity considering of soil parameter correlation on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the research results in such field. The new model is composed of uniform design, limit equilibrium method and partial least squares method, which successfully solves the landslide stability analysis model of parameter correlation. Then we get the sensitivity order of four factors of landslide stability as follows： internal friction angle〉weight degree γ〉slope angle a〉cohesive force c. It is slight different from the results of parameter sensitivity analysis without considering parameter correlation. This model has strong practi, eal and has important theoretical significance and application value for the research field of geologic hazard prevention.

关 键 词：偏最小二乘法 相关 边坡稳定 正交设计 

分 类 号：TV223.31[水利工程—水工结构工程]