应用圆形分布法探讨江苏省流脑的发病季节性及其变化趋势  

ANALYSIS OF THE SEASONALITY AND ITS TREND OF CHANGES OF EPIDEMIC CEREBROSPINAL MENINGITIS WITH CIRCLE DISTRIBUTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

作　　者：陈勇[1] 殷菲[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省疾病预防控制中心免疫规划科,南京210009 [2]四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2008年第14期2630-2631,共2页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]用圆形分布法对江苏省1999～2006年流脑疫情资料进行分析,为预防和控制江苏省流脑提供准确和科学的依据。[方法]按月统计流脑发病数,用圆形分布法探讨流脑季节性分布特点。[结果]江苏省流脑发病具有明显季节性(P﹤0.05),各年发病高峰日不全相同(P﹤0.01),年发病率与发病高峰日和高峰期跨度无关(P﹥0.05)。[结论]江苏省流脑发病存在明显的季节高峰。其发病高峰日多集中在2、3月份,近3年来流脑发病高峰日有前移的趋势。[Objective] To analyze the data of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2006 with circle distribution, so as to provide accurate and scientific basis for the prevention and control of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Jiangsu. [ Methods ] The incidence number of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis were calculated by months, and analyzed the seasonal characteristics of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis by using circle distribution. [ Results] Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis had obvious seasonality in Jiangsu Province （P 〈 0.05）. Every annual morbidity peak was not just the same （P 〈 0.01 ）. Annual morbidity had no association with the morbidity peak day and the peak-hour span （P 〉 0.05）. [Conclusion] Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis morbidity has the obvious seasonality in Jiangsu Province, which concentrates in February and March, and during recent 3 years the peak had an antedisplacement trend.

关 键 词：圆形分布 流行性脑脊髓膜炎 季节性 

分 类 号：R515.2[医药卫生—内科学]