中国对外贸易与经济增长的互动关系研究——基于协整理论和误差修正模型检验  

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：周慧君[1] 韦苇[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2008年第4期60-65,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：利用1980-2006年间统计数据，运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型，对中国对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行实证研究。其结果表明：就长期而言，进口、出口、消费、投资与经济增长之间存在着稳定的均衡关系，进口、出口、消费与投资分别是经济增长的Granger原因，而经济增长则是消费的Granger原因。从短期来看，三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度不断加快，且消费的短期波动对中国经济增长的短期变化影响最为明显，进口和出口也在一定程度上影响着经济增长。Based on the statistics of China from 1980 to 2006, using Cointegration Analysis and Error Correction Model, we study the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. The result shows as follows： there is a stable relationship between economic growth and import, export, consumption and investment from a long term,they are all the Granger causes of economic growth,while economic growth is only the Granger cause of consumption; from a short term, the consumption on the economic growth is the most conspicuous, the import and export also strongly affect economic growth.

关 键 词：对外贸易 经济增长 协整分析 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]