杨树溃疡病测报技术的研究  

A Study on the Forecasting Method for Poplar Canker

作　　者：赵仕光[1] 景耀[1] 王颖[1] 窦道龙 杨陵 

机构地区：[1]西北林学院森林资源保护系 [2]深圳蛇口动植物检疫局

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》1997年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家"八五"攻关项目

摘　　要：通过在西北林学院苗圃的北京杨上进行孢子捕捉和病情调查，利用气象因子中的温度（Ｘ１）、湿度（Ｘ２）、降雨量（Ｘ３）、温湿比（Ｘ６）、雨温比（Ｘ７）、雨湿比（Ｘ８）以及树皮相对膨胀度ＲＴ％（Ｘ４）和孢子数（Ｘ５）来分别预测４０ｄ后的病情指数（ｙ）以及第四个１０天内新出现病斑数量（ｙ′）和病情指数增长值（ｙ″）。利用ＳＹＳＴＡＴ软件分别做多元线性回归、逐步回归和非线性回归，得到三个模型，经过实际病情验证。By investigating disease feature of Dothiorella gregaria , and using factors such as average temperature (X 1) ,average relative humidity ( X 2) and collect rainfall (X 3) of every ten days, ration of temperature to relative humidity ( X 6) ,ratio of rainfall to temperature (X 7) ,ratio of rainfall to relative humidity( X 8) ,relative turgidity ( X 4 )of tree bark and spore number of diseaes ( X 5) to predict the disease. Three models were estabilshed by using the methods of multivariant linear stepwise regression and nonlinear stepwise regression as follow:① y=-131.66+1.051X 1+1.574X 2-0.098X 2+0.217X 4-0.092X 5+96.341X 6+ 7.272 X 7-37.107X 8;②y′=4328.323-0.392X 2 2-1658.601X 2+155.028X 2+0.011X 2 3 +5.206 X 3-2.983X 3-0.094X 2 4-32.674X 4+15.808X 4+9.427X 5-0.180X 2 5+64.825X 6+130.674X 8;③y″=86.289-2044.721X -1 2-4205.324X -1 4+0.049X 2 1-4.757X 5. Among them,model①was used to predict the disease index (y) 40 days later;model ②and ③were used to predict the newly emeged canker spot number (y′) and net incrise of disease index (y″) in the late forth ten days respectively.By using actual disease date abtained from survey,all three models were examed and proved to be reliable.

关 键 词：杨树 溃疡病 测报技术 回归模型 

分 类 号：S763.721.1[农业科学—森林保护学]