中国的货币化与金融化：影响因素与演进趋势  

The Monetization and Financialization in China:Affecting Factors and Evolving Trend

作　　者：蔡如海[1] 刘向明 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [2]中国工商银行北京分行,北京100031

出　　处：《金融论坛》2008年第5期58-63,共6页Finance Forum

基　　金：中国教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“金融体制改革和货币问题研究”(项目编号:04JZD0013)的阶段性研究成果之一

摘　　要：我国的货币化与金融化问题,尽管基本上符合经济货币化与金融化的总体趋势和演进规律,但却具有一定的独特性:具有极高的货币化比率和偏低的金融相关比率(从而极低的证券化比率)。从储蓄分流、金融结构优化和缓解流动性过剩3个视角对该问题的分析表明:储蓄分流应该是增量分流,金融结构优化应该是缩减间接融资的相对规模,我国出现货币化"折点"应满足的条件是M2持续增长但其增速却持续低于名义GDP增速。就我国货币化"折点"出现的时间而言,尽管具有不确定性,但金融相关比率和证券化比率在相当长时间内继续提升却是可以明确预期的。Although, on the whole, the developing route of monetization and financialization in China generally conforms to its ordinary evolving trend, it still appears the peculiarity： a high monetization ratio but low financial interrelation ratio, which induces an extremely low securitization ratio. From the perspectives of diverting savings, optimizing the financial structure and reducing excess liquidity, an analysis result reveals： （1） savings diversion should be an incremental division; （2） reducing the relative scale of indirect financing is the key approach to optimize the financial structure; （3） ＂the inflexion of China＇s monetization＂ will turn up when M2 can keep increasing with a speed lower than that of nominal GDP. Although when the inflexion can show up is still not sure, the persistent increase of financial interrelation ratio and securitization ratio in the long run can be expected.

关 键 词：货币化 金融化 储蓄分流 金融结构优化 流动性过剩 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F832