重庆地区年可利用降水资源的变化分析  

Analysis of Annual Utilizable Precipitation Changes in Chongqing

作　　者：李永华 高阳华 廖良兵 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [2]重庆市渝北区气象局,重庆401120

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2008年第3期422-428,共7页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：重庆市科技攻关项目(CSTC,2006AC7053);中国气象局省所科技发展专项(CMATG2008S09);重庆市科技合作项目(2004-8770)

摘　　要：利用重庆地区34站月平均气温及降水资料,在陆面蒸发经验模型基础上计算了可利用降水资源,采用EOF方法分析了主要分布型,并讨论了其变化规律,最后利用MGF-BP神经网络多步预测模型对重庆地区未来10 a(2006—2015年)可利用降水资源进行了预估。结果表明,重庆年可利用降水资源大体分为4种分布类型,即全区域分布型、东西分布型、南北分布型和中部型,其中全区域型是重庆年可利用降水资源最主要的分布型,各分布型具有较显著的年代际变化特征;当年气温偏高、降水量偏少时,年可利用降水资源可能偏少,而当年气温偏低,降水量偏多时,年可利用降水资源可能偏多;初步预测表明,2006—2011年,重庆地区年可利用降水资源总体偏少,而2012—2015年则可能偏多。Using the data set of monthly mean temperature and precipitation at 34 stations in Chongqing in 1959--2003 ,the utilizable precipitation was calculated based on the Takahashi＇s evaporation equation. Then the main distributive patterns were analyzed using the EOF method and their variation characters were discussed. Finally the utilizable precipitation in future 10 yr（2006--2015 ） were projected using the MGF-BP neural network multi-step prediction model in Chongqing District. The results show that the distributions of annual utilizable precipitation may be divided into four kinds of distributive patterns roughly, namely entire region pattern, west-east pattern, north-south pattern and central pattern, among them the entire region pattern is the primary distributive one. Each distributive pattern has remarkably interdecadal variations. The utilizable precipitation may decrease when temperature is higher and precipitation is less ;and vice versa. The preliminary projection indicates that the utilizable precipitation may be overally less from 2006 to 2011 ,but more from 2012 to 2015.

关 键 词：重庆地区 可利用降水 变化分析 预测 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]