一种改进的OPA模型及大停电风险评估  

An Improved OPA Model and the Evaluation of Blackout Risk

作　　者：梅生伟[1] 何飞[1] 张雪敏[1] 夏德明[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2008年第13期1-5,57,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(200493217902);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50525721,50595411)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种改进的OPA模型,该模型由内外2层循环组成,其中内循环综合考虑电网潮流、调度、自动化和继电保护等因素的影响,能够描述系统的快动态;外循环则计及电网升级、运行方式、规划等因素的作用,能够刻画电网长期慢动态行为。进一步提出利用风险价值(VaR)和条件风险价值(CVaR)估计电力系统大停电风险,可以准确描述不同运行参数下电网安全运行水平,并给出总体预防灾变措施。对东北电网的仿真分析结果证明了改进OPA模型的正确性。An improved OPA model is proposed. This model contains two layers of iteration. The inner iteration which describes the fast dynamic of the system considers the influence of the power flow, the dispatching, the automation, and the relay protection, etc, while the outer one which describes the long term slow dynamics of the system considers the impact from power grid upgrade, network operation, planning and other factors. Furthermore, based on the VaR and CVaR, a method which could be used to evaluate the blackout risk of the power system quantitatively is presented. Appropriate preventive control measures are proposed as well. The effectiveness of the improved OPA model is verified by the simulation results concerning the northeast power grid of China.

关 键 词：OPA模型 风险价值 条件风险价值 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]