运用@risk软件评价红脂大小蠹风险初探  

Evaluation of the potential risk of Dendroctonus valens with @risk software

作　　者：汤宛地[1] 石娟[1] 骆有庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国森林病虫》2008年第4期7-9,14,共4页Forest Pest and Disease

基　　金："948"国家林业局引进项目(2006-4-37);北京市教育委员会共建项目(北京几种重要林业有害生物监测与控制技术研究);长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT0607)资助

摘　　要：参照国际上有害生物风险分析方法,应用新推出的@risk软件对红脂大小蠹Dendroctonusvalens LeConte进行了风险性评价,表明红脂大小蠹属于高度危险的有害生物。用@risk软件对条件影响因子的敏感性分析表明,在所有评判指标中,潜在危害性及国内已分布区域这两项指标对红脂大小蠹在我国造成的巨大风险贡献度最高,分别为0.501和0.425。Based on the international pest risk analysis and evaluation method, the potential risk of Dendroctonus valens LeConte was analyzed with a newly introduced software, ＠risk. The results showed that D. valens was highly dangerous. The sensitivity analysis of conditional influencing factors with ＠ risk software showed that among all the evaluation indexes, the potential danger and distribution in China had the greatest effect on the risk of D. valens. The contribution degrees were 0. 501 and 0.425 respectively.

关 键 词：红脂大小蠹 风险性评价 ＠risk软件 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]