经济开发区人-模交互式不确定环境系统规划方法初探  

A preliminary study on the inexact man-model interactive environmental system program method for economic development zone

作　　者：邹锐[1,2] 郭怀成[1,2] 刘磊 张璐平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学中心 [2]厦门大学环境科学中心

出　　处：《中国环境科学》1997年第5期397-401,共5页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家教委海洋生态环境开放研究实验室资助课题

摘　　要：简要分析了经济开发区环境规划的特点，指出目前所采用的方法不可能有效地实现对开发区环境经济系统的优化设计。为了解决这个问题，文中提出一套基于环境承载力的不确定性人－模交互式环境系统规划方法，将大气、水及资源等子系统有机地通过模型整合起来，并充分考虑到了环境经济系统的不确定性与部分因子的不可量化性，通过人与模型的交互过程，将决策者及专家的知识和经验与模型结合起来。Based on some brief analysis on the characteristic of the environmental planning for economic demelopment zone,this paper suggests that the presently applied program methods are unable to effectively opptimize the regional environ economic system.To solve this problem,the paper proposed a environmental support capacity based inexact man model interactive environmental system program method,which integrated the atmosperic environment,water environment and resources through a group of models,and give full consideration to the uncertainty of the environ economic system.Through the interactive process between man and model,the experiences and knowledge of the decision makers and the experts are combined with the model,so as to guarantee the rationality and practicability of the planning decision.

关 键 词：经济开发区 交互式 不确定性 环境系统规划 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]