我国外汇冲销干预的有效性研究  

A Study on the Effectiveness of China’s Sterilized Interventions

作　　者：袁小玲[1] 刘建国[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《华东理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2008年第2期37-42,48,共7页Journal of East China University of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

摘　　要：本文在分析我国特殊制度背景和汇率形成机制的基础上, 对我国 1994 年以来实行的冲销干预效果进行了实证研究。研究结果显示, 我国国际收支出现持续顺差, 外汇市场经常处于超额供给状态; 人民银行大规模干预吸收了外汇市场大部分供求压力, 在汇率稳定过程中起到了至关重要作用。由于我国外汇对冲规模和干预投放的人民币规模之间存在较大货币缺口, 并没有实现完全意义上的冲销效果。未对冲的外汇占款成为我国基础货币增长的主要来源, 加大了现行货币政策保持宏观经济稳定的难度。针对现有干预存在的缺陷, 本文从不同角度对其深层次原因进行了剖析。最后, 本文指出在新的经济环境下,我国冲销干预的目标、机制和工具选择等方面需要进行重新调整, 并提出了相关政策建议。This thesis analyzes the specialty of exchange rate mechanism in China, and then takes a demonstration study on sterilized intervention effect. Results indicate that capital inflow brings on continued balance of payments surplus, and the People＇ s Bank keeps RMB rate stable successfully by vast and direct intervention operations, which leads to the rapid increase of foreign reserve. The People＇s Bank also takes some sterilization operations. But data indicate that there is a large gap between the money supply by foreign intervention and money withdrawal by sterilization operations. The non-sterilized money becomes the main part of basic money supply, and even leads to remarkable internal-external economy conflicts. This thesis also analyzes the reason of this phenomenon from different aspects deeply based on the limitations of intervention at present. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the sterilization intervention effect in our country.

关 键 词：外汇冲销干预 冲销缺口 有效性 内外均衡 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]