基于购买力平价学说的人民币均衡汇率  

Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based on The Purchase-Power Parity(PPP) Theory

作　　者：席鑫焱[1] 吴骏[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外贸易学院金融学院,上海201620 [2]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2008年第7期73-75,共3页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学<购买力平价学说动态表述及其应用研究>(07JA790025)项目研究成果

摘　　要：对购买力平价学说进行了重新审视,给出了购买力平价学说的动态表述,然后依据动态购买力平价理论对人民币均衡汇率进行探讨,结果表明2005年人民币兑美元的均衡汇率为＄1=$6左右,在未来由于中国经济的快速增长,又将使人民币实际长期均衡汇率平均每年将升值2.44%,如果中国政府计划用10年时间使人民币市场汇率回归到长期均衡汇率,则人民币实际汇率平均每年又将升值2.3%,综合考虑上述两个因素的共同作用,则在未来10年内人民币实际汇率平均每年将升值4.7%左右,这样10年后人民币市场汇率才能回归到长期均衡汇率。Reconsidering The Purchase-power parity （PPP） Theory , we bring out a dynamic view of it .After discussing the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB with this view ,we find the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB against USD in 2005 is about $1=V6 . What＇s more, with the quick development of economy in china, the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of RMB will increase by 2.44% every year. On the other hand ,if the government of china will spend 10 years to make the market exchange rate back to long-term equilibrium exchange rate.the real exchange rate of RMB will increase by 2.3% furthermore. Taking these two factors into account ,only if the real exchange rate of RMB would increase by 4.7% more or less, it would return back to the long-term equilibrium exchange rate after 10 years.

关 键 词：人民币均衡汇率 动态购买力平价理论 相对价格水平 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]