离散型模糊概率在方案选择中的应用  

Application of Discrete Fuzzy Probability in Alternatives Selection

作　　者：向寿生[1] 朱鸿昌[2] 赵彦锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]西安财经学院管理学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2008年第7期35-38,44,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：西安财经学院课题《不确定条件下的工期优化与决策》(06xck49)

摘　　要：针对决策者在进行方案选择时各种自然状态发生概率的不确定性,提出并讨论了离散型模糊状态概率下的方案选择问题。将方案各状态发生概率的三项估计值表示为三角模糊数,从而获得离散型模糊概率分布,利用限制模糊算法确定离散型模糊概率分布的数字特征值,在确定决策者决策准则的前提下,利用方案评价指标的数字特征值选择方案,同时分析了该法处理的优点。Considering the uncertainty of the probabilities of events in the selection of alternatives, the alternative selection problem with fuzzy state probability is proposed and investigated. Discrete fuzzy probability distribution is got when the three estimation value of an alternative is expressed as triangular fuzzy number. Numerical character value is got through restricted fuzzy arithmetic method. Alternative can be selected using the numerical character value of the evaluation index for an alternative when the decision principal of decision maker is set. The advantage of the method is analyzed.

关 键 词：净现值 模糊概率 方案选择 

分 类 号：F224.5[经济管理—国民经济] O211.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]