负荷模型不确定性对电力系统动态仿真的影响  

Effect of Uncertainty in Load Model on Power System Dynamic Simulation

作　　者：韩冬[1] 马进[1] 贺仁睦[1] 岳程燕[2] 张进[2] C.Rehtanz 

机构地区：[1]电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206 [2]ABB(中国)有限公司集团研究中心,北京市朝阳区100016

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2008年第19期69-74,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB217901);长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(IRT0515)~~

摘　　要：为解决蒙特卡洛模拟法仿真次数过多、消耗时间过长等缺点,采用一种新的不确定分析方法——概率分配法(probabilisticcollocationmethod,PCM),定量分析动态负荷所占比例的不确定性对动态仿真及稳定的影响裕度。新英格兰10机39节点系统的仿真分析验证该方法在电力系统动态仿真中的实用性和有效性。仿真分析显示离故障点较近且负荷较重的节点,其动态负荷所占比例的不确定影响最大;某些距故障点较远但负荷较重的节点,其不确定性对暂态稳定仍有较大的影响。对电力系统的动态仿真结果表明PCM方法可直接在输出响应与指定参数间建立多项式关系,仅用参数的概率密度函数及少量仿真便可快速估计出响应的概率分布,从而对响应进行不确定性分析。In order to solve the disadvantages of Mont-Carlo simulation method used in typical uncertainty analysis, this paper adopted a new method-probabilistic collocation method （PCM） to analyze quantitative uncertainties of dynamic load proportion in dynamic simulation and stability analysis. A case study-New England 10-machine 39-bus system, verified the practicability and validity of the proposed method for uncertainty analysis in dynamic simulation. The results showed that the uncertainties in load composition at buses which are close to the fault site and at the buses that have heavy loads, have strong effects on transient stability, while some load buses that have heavy loads, is little far from the fault site, still have stronger effects on transient stability. It is concluded that the proposed method could directly describe the desired output as a polynomial of parameters. Consequently, the probability distribution of the response could be acquired by probability density function of parameters and much fewer simulations.

关 键 词：概率分配法 动态仿真 不确定性分析 负荷模型 动态负荷比例 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]