Nested-Logit模型在轨道交通衔接方式选择中的应用  

Application of Nested-Logit Mode in Railway Transfer Mode Selection

作　　者：王文红[1] 关宏志[2] 王山川[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京城建设计研究总院有限责任公司,北京100037 [2]北京工业大学,北京100022

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2008年第7期25-30,共6页Urban Mass Transit

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50478041);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8053019)

摘　　要：轨道交通衔接方式的选择不仅与衔接方式的服务水平有关,且与出行者个人属性密切相关,本质上属于一种出行者的选择行为。通过对衔接方式选择的行为数据分析,得出:利用轨道交通出行的人群,年龄在20～30岁之间、年收入5万元以下,大部分无私家车(占85%以上),平日以工作目的为主,假日以购物娱乐为主,衔接方式主要为步行,其次为道路公交;总衔接时间占总出行时间的比例主要集中在0.19～0.64之间。在数据初步分析的基础上,基于出行者选择轨道交通的基础上选择衔接方式的行为,建立了2层的Nested-Logit模型,不仅可用于轨道交通衔接客流的预测,而且可应用于交通政策分析及评价。The selection of railway transfer modes is influenced by the level of service and the personal attributes like the behavior of trip. Based on the analysis of passengers＇ choice for railway transfer modes, the paper finds that the average age of the passengers are between 20 and 30, their annual incomes are below Y50 000 and most of them don＇t have cars （more than 85%）. On weekdays they are commuters and on holidays mainly go out for shopping and entertainment, the main mode of their trip is walking, followed by public transit means. The percentage of the railway transfer time occupied 19%-64% of the total travel time. On the basis of the analysis, this paper provides a two-step Nested- Logit Mode for the planners, which can be used to forecast the traffic volume, to analyze and evaluate the transportation policy.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 乘客出行 衔接方式选择 Nested-Logit模型 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]