Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?  

作　　者：LANG XianMei WANG HuiJun 

机构地区：[1]Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction & Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of AtmosphericPhysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2008年第15期2392-2399,共8页

基　　金：by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40505017, 40631005 and 40620130113);the Innovation Project of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS (Grant No. IAP07205)

摘　　要：Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948―2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon fre-quency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 34-year (1970―2003) ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmos-pheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-AGCM), aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical prediction of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948-2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing Iongwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific （WNP） typhoon frequency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 34-year （1970-2003） ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Under the Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP9L-AGCM）, aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical prediction of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.

关 键 词：西北太平洋台风 频繁度 IAP9L-AGCM 可预测性 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]