基于模糊层次分析法的产品创新风险评估模型  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model of Complex Product Systems Innovation Based on Fuzzy AHP

作　　者：段秉乾[1] 司春林[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第7期1002-1005,共4页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70472021)

摘　　要：复杂产品创新是一项充满风险的系统工程,对创新活动进行全面的风险评估尤为重要.复杂产品的创新风险受多种因素影响,现有的评估方法均无法全面衡量复杂产品的创新风险.为此比较了复杂产品创新的主要风险评估方法,提出了基于模糊层次分析法的风险综合评估模型.该模型融合了多种评估方法,能够从系统整体角度进行风险排序,从而实现资源最优配置,符合当代风险评估研究的发展趋势.Complex product systems（CoPS）innovation is a system engineering full of risks and also prerequisite to the comprehensive risk assessment. The innovation risks of CoPS are affected by many factors, and the present methods can＇t meet the requirement for a full-scale assessment of the innovation risks. A comparative study is made of the main assessment methods of CoPS innovation, and a comprehensive risk assessment model is established based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（AHP）. With the model, the risk order is arranged from a general point of view, therefore, the allocation of resources is optimized. This model is in line with the contemporary trend of risk assessment research.

关 键 词：复杂产品 技术创新 模糊层次分析法 风险评估 

分 类 号：F406.3[经济管理—产业经济]