汇率变动对我国进口产品价格的传递效应——基于细分商品层面的分析  

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Import Goods Prices of Our Country:An Analysis based on "Sub-Level Goods"

作　　者：王琼[1] 曹伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院 [2]广东技术师范学院经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2008年第7期27-31,共5页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：本文在汇率价格传递理论分析的基础上,采用自回归分布滞后模型在细分商品层面就人民币汇率变动对进口商品价格的传递进行了研究。研究发现,汇率传递的大小在我国不同行业的不同商品间有较大差异,我国进口商品价格存在不完全传递现象,甚至部分商品存在逆传递。对于原材料类产品,汇率对价格的影响是相当迅速的,随着深加工的进行影响会出现时滞。Basing on the theoretical analysis of exchange rate pass-through,This article uses autoregressive distributed lag model to make researches on the exchange rate pass-through of import prices of sub-level goods.It finds out that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is very different among different industries.A non-perfect pass-through phenomenon exists in the import prices,and a reverse pass-through even appears in some import goods;The change of exchange rate would passes on to prices of raw and processed materials quickly,and with the deep processing of products,the impact will be delayed.

关 键 词：汇率 进口产品价格 汇率传递 自回归分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]