出租车监管措施效果的仿真预测模型  

A Simulation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Supervising Interventions of Cruising Taxi Service

作　　者：慕晨[1] 宣慧玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《预测》2008年第4期46-52,共7页Forecasting

摘　　要：针对我国出租车监管措施的制定主要依据经验而缺乏理论支撑的现状,提出一种基于离散事件仿真的巡游型出租车服务模型。为真实模拟我国出租车路边随机搭载乘客居多的特点,假定出行需求分布在路网的节点和路段上。乘客根据价格和期望出行时间选择是否乘坐出租车,而空车根据有限的路网信息以及驾驶经验寻找乘客。模型能够模拟出租车在路网上搜索乘客并提供出行服务的动态过程,定量反映价格和配车数量与系统性能的关系,并预测改变起步价格、起步里程或者单位里程价格等监管措施的实施效果,为监管部门决策提供可靠的理论支持。Taxi regulation interventions are mostly based on experience and lack of theoretical support, thus we propose a discrete event system simulation model for cruising taxi service. The passengers are assumed to be at nodes and links, thus the common behavior that taxis may pick up passengers anywhere on roadside in our country is taken into consideration. In this model, a potential customer decides whether to take taxi according to price and the expected travel time, and a vacant taxi decides where to find new passengers in view of finite information and driving experience： The model attempts to deal with the dynamic process of taxis searching for passengers and providing travel services, and quantitatively analyze how price and taxi fleet size influence system performance. The model can provide an evaluation of the impact of such intervention as changing price and start distance, and is helpful for taxi supervisor to provide better service.

关 键 词：出租车服务 监管措施 离散事件仿真 系统性能 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]