基于可变模糊识别模型的大连市水资源与社会经济协调发展研究  

Variable Fuzzy Recognition Applied to Dalian Water Resources and Coordinated Socio-Economic Development

作　　者：盖美[1] 李伟红[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连116029

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第8期1141-1146,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：辽宁省社科规划基金项目:"资源环境与辽宁经济协调发展研究"(编号:L07CJL028);国家自然科学基金项目:"基于海域承载力的我国沿海地区经济可持续发展研究"(编号:40671052)

摘　　要：水资源短缺已成为大连市社会经济可持续发展的制约因素，因此研究水资源与社会经济的协调发展具有重要的现实意义。本文在对大连市水资源、社会经济基本现状分析的基础上，提出了水资源与社会经济系统协调发展的评价指标体系。由于社会经济、水资源各指标发挥的作用不同，因此本文采用AHP法确定各指标体系的权重。最后，首次采用可变模糊识剐模型分析大连市水资源与社会经济的协调性，结果表明，从1990年-2006年大连市水资源与社会经济的协调度性是由明显失调向基本协调发展，这一结论恰与大连市的实际发展情况相符，是大连市不断调整产业结构、利用先进的节水技术手段和积极开展“第二水源”的利用而取得的成果。通过研究表明，可变模糊识别模型用于水资源与社会经济协调发展研究中，计算简便，评价结果可信度高，丰富了该领域的研究内容，具有推广和应用价值。Water resources are essential for maintaining biological life and provide an irreplaceable natural resource for industrial production, economic growth and environmental improvements. Water resources are also a key factor for improvement of living standards and sustainable development. Dalian experiences an extreme shortage of water resources, and with rapid economic development and population increase causing large-scale growth in demand for water resources along with increased pollution, water resources are especially limited. The shortage of water resources has become a constraint on the sustainable socioeconomic development of Dalian, therefore the study of coordinating water resources and socioeconomic development is of important practical significance. In this paper, based on an analysis of Dalian＇ s water resources and socioeconomic status, we developed an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of water resources and the socioeconomic system. We used an Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weight for every index, as various social, economic and water resource indicators have different functions. Due to the water resource system＇ s complexity and uncertainty, and the tendency of dynamic changes under certain space-time conditions, we applied a variable fuzzy recognition model to analyze the coordination between Dalian water resources and socioeconomic system. The results show that the coordination level developed from an obvious imbalance to more improved coordination over the period from 1990 to 2006. This conclusion is consistent with Dalian＇s actual development. These achievements were obtained through adjustment of the industrial structure, enhancement of water-use benefits, improvements to water supply capacity, active utilization of secondary water resources, continuous reduction of the agricultural water scale, and more efficient water consumption and recycling by major industrial enterprises. In this study, the variable fuzzy recognition model for analysis of the coordin

关 键 词：水资源 社会经济 指标体系 可变模糊识别模型 大连市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]