寿命不确定性与居民预防性储蓄——兼论中国社会保障体系存在的不足  

The Uncertain Longevity And The Precautionary Saving——Remarks on The Deficiencies of The Social Security in China

作　　者：张继海[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2008年第4期69-74,共6页Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences

摘　　要：居民面临自身寿命的不确定性,因此会增加预防性储蓄和降低当期消费支出水平。由于信息不对称,私人的商业保险不能为居民的寿命不确定性提供完备的保险功能,只有通过建立政府强制性的社会保障体系,才能有效降低居民不确定寿命的预防性储蓄。中国的社会保障体系虽然经过十多年的发展取得了显著的成就,但在覆盖范围、缴费率和政府投入等方面仍然存在许多不足和缺陷。The consumer increases the precautionary saving and reduces the current consumption against the uncertain longevity. The commercial insurance market fails to provide perfect insurance arrangements against the uncertain longevity due to the adverse selection based on the asymmetric information theory. Therefore, the Social Security set up by the government is able to provide perfect insurance against the uncertain longevity and reduce the precautionary saving by the compulsive participation. The Social Security in China has made remarkable achievements during the last over ten years. However, there are still many aspects for the Social Security in China to improve, such as the coverage, payment rates and government input and so on.

关 键 词：不确定寿命 预防性储蓄 计算机动态模拟 社会保障 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学] F832.22