SPSS中的ROC分析用于CH筛查方法的评价  

APPLICATION OF ROC ANALYSIS OF SPSS FOR THE EVALUATION OF SCREENING METHOD FOR CONGENITAL HYPOTHYROIDISM

作　　者：朱文斌[1] 陈涵强[1] 周进福[1] 王旌[1] 赵红[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省妇幼保健院,福州350001

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2008年第16期3077-3079,3081,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]确立筛查新生儿先天性甲状腺功能低下症(CH)中促甲状腺素(TSH)的切值。[方法]应用SPSS软件包中新颖的ROC分析法,来对新生儿先天性甲状腺功能低下症的筛查方法进行科学评价。[结果]ROC分析能方便地算出不同的TSH的敏感性与特异性等6项指标,新生儿筛查CH的TSH最佳临界值为10mU/L,其敏感度为99.2%,特异度为93.6%,AUC为0.964,SE为0.5%。[结论]ROC曲线能将诊断方法的敏感性与特异性结合起来进行分析,又能表示为"曲线下的面积越大,其诊断试验效果越好",确定TSH的最佳切值为10mU/L。[Objective] To establish the cut off value of thyrotropin （TSH） in the screening method for CH. [ Methods ] The application of ROC analytical method of SPSS for scientific evaluation of screening method for CH. [Results] The 6 indexes of TSH in the screening method for CH can be easily calculated by ROC analysis including sensitivity and specificity, the best cut off value of TSH is IOmU/L, and the sensitivity and specificity were 89 percent and 90 percent, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.964 as well as the SE was 0.5%. [ Conclusion] The sensitivity and specificity of CH method can be combined by ROC analysis. The more area is showed under the curve, the better effect of diagnostic test is revealed by ROC analysis, and the best cut off value of TSH is 10mU/L.

关 键 词：ROC分析 SPSS 先天性甲状腺功能低下症 新生儿筛查 切值 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]