基于模糊集的风险聚类预测方法  

Risk classification forecast approach based on fuzzy set

作　　者：那丽春[1] 刘念祖[1] 张明[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院信息科学系

出　　处：《计算机工程与设计》2008年第14期3645-3646,3650,共3页Computer Engineering and Design

基　　金：上海教委发展基金项目(06QZ002);上海市高校高水平特色发展基金项目(06FX1-07)

摘　　要：复杂社会技术系统存在许多不确定性的因素,这些因素给社会决策、项目过程管理带来了巨大的障碍和风险,因此有效的风险预测方法变得十分重要。根据风险项目的风险因素向量,利用模糊等价类的方法,对风险项目的历史数据进行模糊聚类,进而通过对新的风险项目和历史数据的模糊匹配实现了项目的风险聚类预测方法。分析和实践表明,该模型有效地解决了风险项目中诸多不确定性因素分类问题。该方法适合于政府决策、电子商务、软件项目管理等方面的风险管理应用。There are many uncertain factors in complex society technique systems, and these uncertain factors bring up the huge obstacle and risks for the society decisions and project process management. The effective risk forecast approach become very important. Based on the risk factor vector of risk project, and using the fuzzy equivalence method, the historical data of risk projects are classified by fuzzyset, By themethod of fuzzy match between the new risk project and the historical fuzzy equivalence data, a risk forecast approach is described. The analysis and experimental results show that this approach effectively resolves the problem of classification for uncertain factors of risk project. It can be fit for the risk management applications of government decisions, electronic business and software project management.

关 键 词：模糊集 风险聚类预测 不确定因素 风险 风险管理 

分 类 号：TP31[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] E917[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]