基于系统动力学的供应链稳定性研究  

Stability of Supply Chain:A System Dynamics Approach

作　　者：罗昌[1] 贾素玲[1] 王惠文[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2008年第14期3815-3819,3824,共6页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70521001);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(06JD630001)

摘　　要：为了提高供应链系统的稳定性,基于系统动力学方法建立了具有两种典型延迟模式(一阶指数延迟和纯时间延迟)的二级供应链系统模型,并定义了供应链稳定性概念及判据。通过对模型进行仿真,得到了不同含义下供应链系统的稳定边界,统一了不同研究方法的结论。结果表明,供应链的稳定性主要取决于系统的反馈控制结构,决策者主观偏好与外部环境必须通过反馈控制结构才能影响系统稳定性,加强信息共享有利于提高系统稳定性并削弱牛鞭效应。To increase the stability of supply chain system, a system dynamics （SD） model was proposed. The model was provided with two typical delay modes： fist-order exponential delay and pure time delay. Then the concept of stability and stability criterion were defined. With simulation, stability borders with different meanings were confirmed, which integrated the results derived from different research methods. It is concluded that the stability of inventory control system is mainly decided by the features of feedback systems, the subjective decision and environment take their effects based on the feedback systems, and information sharing is propitious to increase the stability and weaken bullwhip effect of supply chain system.

关 键 词：供应链 仿真 系统动力学 稳定性 牛鞭效应 

分 类 号：F224.12[经济管理—国民经济]